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Fan-Made Shiny Odds Tool

Pokémon Shiny Probability Calculator

Calculate shiny odds, dry streak chance, encounters needed, Masuda Method odds, Shiny Charm odds, and Pokémon GO shiny estimates.

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Masuda

Dry Streak

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Shiny Chance Path

Turn encounters, eggs, raids, or checks into a clear shiny probability result.

Pokémon Shiny Probability Calculator

Calculate Shiny Odds, Dry Streaks, and Encounters Needed

Choose a mode, enter your odds and attempts, then see your shiny chance, zero-shiny chance, and result explanation.

Fan-made probability tool only. This page is not affiliated with Pokémon, Nintendo, Game Freak, Creatures, The Pokémon Company, or Niantic. Also, shiny odds can vary by game, method, species, event, and update.

Result Table

Result Explanation

How to read this

Enter your numbers to see an estimate.

Quick Answer

How Do You Calculate Shiny Probability?

Shiny probability is calculated with this formula: 1 − (1 − shiny rate)^encounters. This shows your chance of getting at least one shiny after a number of encounters, eggs, raids, or checks. However, it is never a guarantee.

✦ Key Takeaways

Shiny odds are not a promise.
More encounters increase your chance, but they do not guarantee a shiny.
A dry streak can still happen, even after many checks.
Masuda Method and Shiny Charm can improve odds in many mainline games.
Also, Pokémon GO shiny odds can change by event, species, and raid type.

Best formulaUse 1 − (1 − rate)^encounters.

Best modeStart with the Dry Streak Calculator.

Best warningYou are never “due” for a shiny.

How It Works

How This Shiny Odds Calculator Works

The calculator uses independent probability. Therefore, each encounter is treated as a new chance.

Calculator Modes

Encounters, Eggs, Dry Streaks, Masuda, and Pokémon GO

Use these modes to answer the common questions shiny hunters ask during a hunt.

Formula Guide

Pokémon Shiny Odds Formula

Chance of At Least One Shiny

This formula estimates your chance of getting at least one shiny after many attempts. Also, it works for encounters, eggs, raids, and checks.

Chance = 1 − (1 − Shiny Rate)^Attempts

Chance of Zero Shinies

This formula shows the chance that you still have no shiny after your attempts. As a result, it is useful for dry streaks.

Zero Shiny Chance = (1 − Shiny Rate)^Attempts

Encounters Needed Formula

This formula estimates the attempts needed for a target chance. However, even a 95% chance still means a miss is possible.

Attempts Needed = log(1 − Target Chance) ÷ log(1 − Shiny Rate)

Odds Presets

Common Shiny Odds Presets

Use these presets as planning estimates. Also, choose custom odds when your game, event, or target uses a different rate.

Examples

Shiny Probability Examples

These examples show why shiny odds can feel strange during real hunts.

Avoid Mistakes

Common Shiny Hunting Probability Mistakes

Probability can feel unfair. However, these mistakes make shiny hunts feel even more confusing.

Terms

Shiny Probability Terms Explained

Abul Bashar Suman

Founder, AI Builder USA

Available To Chat

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Founder Note

“Clear odds make random hunts easier.”

I build simple calculator pages that help users understand numbers, odds, and next steps faster.

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